In the tape, bin-Laden urges US to convert. During its 25-minute duration, bin Laden addresses the American people and lays out his argument for why U.S. Democrats are unable to stop the Iraq war. He spends a great deal of time echoing the works of Noam Chomsky in condemning capitalism and globalization, arguing that the "money talks" notion is hardwired into the U.S. political system and is what drives the war industry. Toward the end of the speech, he calls for Americans to convert to Islam and makes an awkward outreach to Christians by noting how the Koran mentions Jesus and Mary dozens of times and even affirms the concept of the virgin birth. It is quite possible that the speech was written or influenced by Adam Gadahn, also known as Azzam the American, who is also referred to in the video. Bin Laden has not exhibited detailed knowledge of American political discourse in any of his previous communiqués.
The fact that he referenced the anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki as being observed "a few days ago" (the anniversaries are Aug. 6 and Aug. 9) means the tape was probably recorded in mid-August. This would be in line with the pattern of bin Laden's statements taking at least three weeks to be released after being recorded.
If the video is authentic, the main take away from the message is that bin Laden is, in fact, alive. He has not appeared in a video since November 2004, and for operational security reasons has avoided making any media appearances. The last video was made at what was perceived as a major turning point for the United States ahead of the congressional elections. Bin Laden likely chose to risk making his reappearance at this time to take advantage of a critical juncture in U.S. politics over how to proceed in Iraq. His speech will strike a chord among al Qaeda's sympathizers and franchise jihadist groups, but it does not necessarily raise the threat level for attacks against the West. The gradual degradation of al Qaeda's apex leadership has significantly hampered the group's ability to carry out meaningful attacks against Western targets. Moreover, bin Laden's vision of creating an Islamic Caliphate by toppling corrupt Muslim regimes has proven unattainable. Even in this new video, bin Laden has no accomplishment to tout other than 9/11, nor does he make any specific threats.
Nonetheless, bin Laden remains the central inspirational figure to the modern jihadist movement, and the perceived proof of his continued survival from this video could aid regional jihadist nodes in recruitment and maintenance of their support networks.
In a real sense, however, the measure of bin Laden's success has little to do with whatever actions took place or did not after 9/11. His success is measured by the events he put into motion with the 9/11 attacks. One of bin Laden's goals was to create a war between the crusaders and the Islamic world in order to overthrow non-Islamist Muslim regimes that were collaborating with the crusaders and create the context for an international Islamist regime. Bin laden got the war between the crusaders -- the United States -- and a part of the Islamist world. Afghanistan, Iraq and the Horn of Africa all see active conflicts, while U.S. covert operations range throughout the Islamic world. He did not get the toppling of Muslim regimes. So far at least, no regimes have been overthrown. The context for the caliphate has not been created.
Indeed, one of bin Laden's great failures is to have been flanked by the Iranian Shiites as the center of gravity of Islamist radicalism. After the overthrow of the Shah or Iran, it was Iran that was the radical center. Bin Laden had managed to reclaim the mantle for the Sunni world. At the moment, he appears to be losing the battle. In many ways, 9/11, rather than paving the way for the Sunni caliphate, appears to have opened the door to Shiite power. But that is only the picture at this moment. What bin Laden did was put in motion events that he hoped would proceed in a certain direction, and whose ultimate outcome no longer appears to be in anyone's control. Nothing he did before or after 9/11 really matters. What he did, or inspired on 9/11, reshaped the world as dramatically as any event.
P.S. Early analysis indicates the voice on a recently released videotape is that of Osama bin Laden, a U.S. official said late today (Friday), as President Bush called the tape "a reminder of the dangerous world in which we live."U.S. officials said its appearance -- just days before the sixth anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks planned and carried out by al Qaeda -- shows that the group remains intent on targeting the United States."We continue to see a very determined enemy who wants to plot, plan and kill Americans and act against American interests," White House homeland security adviser Fran Townsend told CNN.
P.S. On a second reading of the transcript it is also interesting to note that bin Laden engages in contradictory historical revisionism. For example when he claims “And my proof for that is in what your brothers, the Spanish, did when they set up the horrible courts of the Inquisition to try Muslims and Jews, when the Jews only found safe shelter by taking refuge in our countries.” Fact is however that , for thousands of years, the Jews of most Muslim countries were tolerated at best as second-class citizens who lived under the protection of sovereign.As further proof of his contention, bin Laden declares: “…that is why the Jewish community in Morocco today is one of the largest communities in the world. They are alive with us and we have not incinerated them.” Another fact: Only a few thousand Jews remain in Morocco from a vibrant community of 265,000 prior to 1948. In that year, entire Jewish communities were dispossessed and thrown out of Morocco and most other Arab Muslim countries. They found refuge in the fledgling State of Israel. And in 2003, he sent his suicide bombers to attack… Casablanca’s Jewish Quarter.
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